Title:  Planning, Tracking, and Reducing a Complex Project’s Value at Risk

Description/Abstract:  Uncertainty, risk, and rework make it extremely challenging to meet goals and deliver anticipated value in complex projects, and conventional techniques for planning and tracking earned value do not account for these phenomena. I present a methodology for planning and tracking cost, schedule, and technical performance (or quality) in terms of a project’s key value attributes and threats to them. The approach distinguishes four types of value and two general types of risks. The “high jumper” analogy helps to consider how high the “bar” is set for a project (its set goals) and therefore how challenging and risky it will be. A project’s capabilities as a “jumper” (to clear the bar and meet its goals) determine the portion of its value at risk (VaR). By understanding the amounts of value, risk, and opportunity in a project, project managers can design it for appropriate levels of each. Project progress occurs through reductions in its VaR:  activities “add value” by chipping away at the project’s “anti-value,” the risks that threaten value. This perspective on project management incentivizes the generation of results that eliminate these threats, rather than assuming that value exists until proven otherwise.

Bio

Dr. Tyson R. Browning is an internationally recognized researcher, educator, and consultant.  He is a full Professor of Operations Management in the Neeley School of Business at Texas Christian University, where he conducts research on managing complex projects (integrating managerial and engineering perspectives) and teaches MBA courses on project management, operations management, risk management, and process improvement.  A sought-after speaker, he has trained and advised several organizations, including BNSF Railway, General Motors, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Seagate, Siemens, Southern California Edison, and the U.S. Navy.  He has also served as an expert witness in legal proceedings.

Prior to joining TCU in 2003, he worked for Lockheed Martin, the Lean Aerospace Initiative at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Honeywell Space Systems, and Los Alamos National Laboratory.  He earned a B.S. in Engineering Physics from Abilene Christian University before two Master’s degrees and a Ph.D. from MIT.

His research results appear in journals such as California Management Review, Decision Sciences, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Journal of Mechanical Design, Journal of Operations Management, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, MIT Sloan Management Review, Production & Operations Management, Project Management Journal, and Systems Engineering.  He is also the co-author of a book on the Design Structure Matrix (DSM).  He has given over 160 academic and industry presentations and workshops in 17 countries.

Having previously served as a Department or Associate Editor for three journals, he is currently co-Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Operations Management.  He is a member of several professional societies:  Academy of Management, Decision Sciences Institute, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, International Council on Systems Engineering, Production and Operations Management Society, and Project Management Institute.